Sunday, 27 October 2019

Bitcoin rally and the end of the "avocado correlation" myth

On October 25th, Bitcoin value rocketed from 7,500$ to 10,000$ in 24 hours, which was a 40% price surge in a single day. This was a quite rare happening, even for Bitcoin, and similar performances only happened twice in its history, in 2010 and 2011, when BTC was worth respectively 0.40 and 5.65 USD.

Additionally, this unexpected rush took place while many crypto analysts were quite bearish on Bitcoin and already preparing for the next "crypto winter".

What are the reasons behind this rise?

Some claimed that it happened because of a statement by Cina's General Secretary Xi Jinping (as reported by Cointelegraph which translated the original news by Xinhua). Xi declared that Cina will "accelerate the development of blockchain", and, in less than one hour, the Bitcoin chart apparently responded to that with a price rise.

Binance Research on Twitter, on the other side, as reported by CCN, claimed that Bitcoin's price spike was due to Trump's trade war with Cina, and the tariff storm.
We should also consider the Bitcoin Futures on Bakkt and trading platforms, like Bitmex, allowing leverage trading on crypto, as potential influencing factors for this phenomenon.

I believe that such a massive market movement never happens for a single cause, but always depends on a mix of many different factors, and it's not so easy to attribute the correct "weight" to each of them.

How the Avocado correlation began, and how it ended

The side effect of this spike is to finally disproof the "avocado correlation" theory. According to this, the avocado price was showing an unusual correlation with BTC (see twitter post below form Tracy Alloway @ Bloomberg).


Fortunately, after the recent BTC spike, this correlation is no longer valid, and I would say it never was. It was just a temporary coincidence of trends, as it may happen frequently in many other cases. See below for the update from Tracy Alloway, which also noticed that.


Yes, spurious correlations happen many times, and they can't prove any effective connection between the two examined trends. Do you know, for example, that there is an almost perfect correlation (95,86%) between per capita consumption of mozzarella cheese and civil engineer doctorates awarded? You can find many illogical correlations like this one, visiting the Spurious Correlations website. This is just to demonstrate that you will always find two similar trends, no matter how uncorrelated they may be!


Image credit: Spurious Correlations
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Tuesday, 1 October 2019

Liberstad, Norway - A Private City and a Life Project

We arrive in Liberstad after a journey of about 50 minutes by car, starting from Kristiansand (a south Norwegian city on the sea), and penetrating inland, among hills, lakes, small villages and breathtaking views; we find very little traffic and speed limits that don't exceed 100 km/h.

On the way to Liberstad . picture by the Author

The last stretch, of about 3 km, is a dirt road, but easily passable by car, which goes into the woods and whose maintenance is currently entrusted only to Liberstad AS, since the municipality does not seem to care too much about that. To receive us we find John (general manager of Liberstad) and his wife Sabrina, who live here 365 days a year, with their two children and with John's other business partner, who is busy all the time with the excavator and will pass by when we are going away, just to say hello.

John working - Picture from Liberstad's official website

Liberstad is not only a place of freedom and idealism, but a real company, Liberstad Drift AS; as John explains, there is no escaping taxes and bureaucracy, especially here in Norway. We reach the reception (which displays a flag with the symbol of Anarchy and that of peace, side by side) and we take an American coffee with some excellent sweet rolls (the Norwegian "Boller") prepared by Sabrina; the mugs are decorated with the Bitcoin and Liberstad logos, and John starts telling me how his journey began in 2015, with the study of the Austrian economic school, the interest in crypto, and the curiosity for the private cities. 
Awesome panorama by a lake, in the surroundings of Liberstad - picture by the Author

But, as in all similar cases, rather than looking for a private city to join, the simplest thing was to create one from scratch. Thus he began the search for a suitable plot of land, which lasted about two years until it was identified the area where Liberstad is currently located.
John was a Norwegian businessman and he earned very well, but he felt unhappy and dissatisfied. He decided to quit his job and devote himself full time, and without any remuneration (at least until now) to the construction of the private city.

A view of the property - Picture from Liberstad's official website

The money paid for the purchase of the lots, in fact, is locked on guarantee funds and will be withdrawable only if the project will be carried out as planned, otherwise, it will return to the funders who sent them. Currently, there are more than 100 buyers from all over the world. For some reason, the majority of the buyers are Brasilian, probably because of their growing interest in private cities and new economic paradigms.
I also come to know that, due to some problems with national regulations, Bitcoin ATMs were dismantled some time ago nationwide. Even John's bank blocked his transfers to a popular crypto exchange. In short, the situation does not seem to be so rosy here, with regards to cryptocurrencies, and that is why Liberstad's goal is to create an internal economy, based on City Coin, which is a stable coin, linked to the value of the Norwegian Krone.

City Coin - The cryptocurrency used in Liberstad

Another goal is to provide a place where everything is cheaper, just because Norwegian prices are extremely high, compared to those of other European nations. A positive aspect is the cost of electricity, which is perhaps the only thing that is cheaper here than in other European countries (the standard cost is in fact 0.10 Euro K/h). The government also provides discounts on the bill for data centers. Initially, they wanted to exclude mining from this facility, but it was difficult to distinguish it effectively from other activities, processing data of other kinds, so the benefit still remains even for those wishing to use the data center to mine crypto. Regarding the relationship with local and national authorities, Liberstad is still viewed with a certain suspicion, but it was recently evaluated in positive terms because it meets the need to create structures and activities in remote and sparsely populated areas. "Initially they thought we were right-wing, given that the project was based on private property. Now they are convinced that we are leftists. Actually, we do not deal with politics, we are only interested in having our space, free."

Work in progress - Picture from Liberstad's official website
As we speak, the work proceeds uninterruptedly. John shows me the various areas, a large shed that once housed 10,000 hens, now converted into a concert hall, the sawmill, the area that will host a SPA (wellness center), the one for camping, the northern part that will be purchased shortly, to produce hydroelectric energy thanks to the river that flows there.
One of the owners is also considering making greenhouses and using his own plot of land for agricultural crops. In short, the work to be done is so much, John confesses that his own life will not be enough to achieve everything he would, but, within a year, Liberstad will have to check if the promised goals will be achieved, to unlock the funds sent by the owners of purchased lots.  In the meantime, the work goes on without a pause, John dismisses me amicably and I promise him a new visit soon, for a real, video interview, in order to show, in an even more direct and immediate way, what Liberstad really is.

Visit Liberstad's official website (they recently changed domain so currently there is only Norwegian language available)


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Location: Bjelland, Norvegia
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